Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) poses a severe threat to global health, with recent studies predicting that it will lead to the deaths of over 39 million people by 2050.
This alarming forecast comes from a new global analysis conducted by researchers from the Global Research on Antimicrobial Resistance (Gram) Project.
Their findings highlight the growing danger posed by superbugs—bacteria and pathogens that have evolved to resist antibiotics, making infections harder to treat and often fatal.
What is Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR)?
Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) occurs when bacteria evolve to withstand the effects of antibiotics, making infections harder to treat. AMR has been a major concern for decades, and this new study, conducted by the Global Research on Antimicrobial Resistance (Gram) Project and published in The Lancet, is the first to track AMR trends worldwide.
Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) occurs when bacteria evolve, making the drugs usually used to fight them ineffective. Currently, AMR causes 1.14 million direct deaths annually, and by 2050, this number is expected to rise to 1.91 million.
Additionally, AMR will play a role in 8.2 million deaths every year.
Key Findings of the Study
1. Rising Deaths Due to AMR:
– In 2021, AMR caused 1.14 million direct deaths globally. By 2050, this number is expected to rise to 1.91 million annually. Additionally, AMR will contribute to 8.2 million deaths per year by 2050.
– Infections like Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) have doubled in death tolls over the past three decades.
2. Age Groups at Risk:
– Deaths among children under five have significantly declined, dropping from 488,000 to 193,000 between 1990 and 2022, largely thanks to improved vaccination and hygiene.
– However, AMR deaths in those over 70 have risen by 80% in the same period and are forecast to increase by 146% by 2050.
3. Geographical Impact:
– Countries in South Asia, such as India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, along with parts of sub-Saharan Africa, will be most affected, potentially seeing the highest growth in AMR-related deaths.
The Rise of Antimicrobial Resistance
AMR occurs when bacteria, fungi, and other pathogens develop resistance to the drugs designed to kill them.
The overuse and misuse of antibiotics in humans, animals, and agriculture have accelerated this process, leading to the emergence of superbugs. These resistant strains of bacteria are no longer easily treatable with standard antibiotics, leading to complications in treatments for infections.
A study published in The Lancet forecasts that by 2050, 1.91 million people will die annually as a direct result of AMR, up from 1.14 million in 2021.
Additionally, AMR is expected to play a role in 8.2 million deaths every year—an alarming increase from 4.71 million in 2021.
This trend suggests that without significant intervention, the global death toll from AMR will continue to rise.
Disproportionate Impact on Older Populations
While AMR affects people of all ages, the new analysis found that the elderly are particularly at risk.
By 2050, deaths from drug-resistant infections among people over 70 are expected to increase by 146%, from 512,353 in 2021 to 1.3 million.
This increase is largely due to an ageing global population, with older adults more vulnerable to infections and more likely to suffer from chronic diseases such as diabetes and heart disease.
Dr. Tomislav Meštrović, an assistant professor at University North in Croatia, notes that many AMR infections are linked to hospital care, where older people frequently receive treatment for chronic conditions.
As the population ages, the demand for healthcare services that can lead to infections, such as intravenous lines and surgeries, will also increase, exacerbating the AMR problem.
The elderly are also less likely to respond well to vaccinations due to their weakened immune systems, making them more susceptible to infections. Furthermore, they are more prone to adverse reactions to antibiotics, which can complicate treatment.
Decline in Child Mortality from AMR
On the positive side, deaths related to AMR among children under five have declined significantly.
Between 1990 and 2022, deaths in this age group dropped from 488,000 to 193,000, a decline attributed to improvements in vaccination, hygiene, and healthcare access.
By 2050, these deaths are projected to halve again, demonstrating the success of public health interventions targeting young children.
However, while fewer young children are dying from infections, those who do contract infections are more likely to suffer from drug-resistant strains. This means that even as overall child mortality decreases, the burden of AMR remains a significant concern for this age group.
Global Hotspots for AMR Deaths
Certain regions of the world are expected to be hit harder by AMR than others. South Asia, which includes countries like India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, is projected to experience the highest number of AMR-related deaths.
These countries have already seen significant growth in AMR, and without urgent action, they could face devastating consequences. Other regions at high risk include sub-Saharan Africa and parts of southern and eastern Asia.
The study’s lead author, Dr. Mohsen Naghavi from the University of Washington’s Institute of Health Metrics, emphasizes that millions of deaths could be averted through better infection prevention, improved healthcare access, and the development of new antibiotics.
However, the regions most affected by AMR are often those with the least access to quality healthcare, making it difficult to tackle the issue effectively.
The Role of Superbugs in Future Deaths
The study identifies several pathogens responsible for AMR-related deaths. Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is one of the most significant culprits, with deaths from MRSA doubling to 130,000 between 1990 and 2021.
Similarly, drug-resistant gram-negative bacteria, like Acinetobacter baumannii, have become more prevalent, causing severe infections that are increasingly difficult to treat.
Antimicrobial resistance has been recognized as a growing threat for decades, but this latest research provides a comprehensive analysis of the global impact over time.
According to Dr. Chris Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, AMR has already been a significant health threat for years, and it will continue to worsen unless urgent action is taken.
What Can Be Done?
While the future of AMR looks bleak, there is hope. If the world takes immediate and coordinated action to improve infection care and develop new antibiotics, millions of lives could be saved. The study estimates that 92 million deaths could be averted by 2050 with better healthcare and access to powerful new antibiotics.
Improving antibiotic stewardship—using antibiotics only when necessary and ensuring proper treatment protocols—can also help reduce the pressure on bacteria to evolve resistance.
In addition, preventing infections through improved access to clean water, better hygiene practices, and vaccination programs will be crucial in the fight against AMR.
Dr. Steffanie Strathdee from the University of California San Diego, whose husband nearly died from a superbug infection, advocates for phage therapy as a promising alternative to antibiotics.
Phages are viruses that specifically target and kill bacteria, offering a potential solution to the growing problem of antibiotic-resistant infections. Strathdee’s husband was successfully treated with phages after traditional antibiotics failed to cure his infection, highlighting the need for innovative treatments in the face of rising AMR.
Global Action Needed
The findings of this study should serve as a wake-up call for governments and health organizations worldwide.
Global leaders will meet in New York this month during the United Nations General Assembly to discuss AMR and the steps needed to combat this growing threat. Campaigners hope that the meeting will lead to concrete actions, such as a global target to reduce AMR deaths by 10% by 2030.
Without swift and decisive action, the world could face a future where common infections become untreatable, medical procedures become too risky, and millions more lives are lost to drug-resistant superbugs. The time to act is now, before AMR becomes an even greater global health catastrophe.
Conclusion
Superbugs are a growing threat that could kill over 39 million people by 2050 if immediate action is not taken.
While progress has been made in reducing AMR deaths among young children, the elderly population is particularly vulnerable, and deaths in this group are expected to rise dramatically. The regions most affected by AMR—South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa—are in urgent need of improved healthcare and infection prevention strategies.
With coordinated global efforts, including the development of new antibiotics and innovative treatments like phage therapy, it is possible to avert millions of deaths and slow the spread of AMR.
